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Does World War III and Armegeddon Loom?

October 30, 2007

If the US and Russia continue a course of mutual belligerency — albeit gloved — the road to Armageddon will be short.

The West must understand that Russia newly flushed with energy wealth is no longer an underdog but a major world player. Russia, in its turn, must quit sending its bombers to tease Western countries. The US should come to terms with the fact it’s no longer the only policeman on the block.

People are generally given to shrugging off mentions of a third world war. This is mainly because the next one could be mankind’s last. Those who sprinkle their speeches or articles with dire warnings of a massive nuclear conflagration are often written off as scaremongers. Those who lived through the horrors of World War II and later witnessed the battered planet coming together to draft the Geneva Conventions and form the United Nations had hope that we had truly learned our lesson. Never again!

Surely it is inconceivable that world leaders would be prepared to put their nations on a suicidal collision course for any reason. Indeed, even during the most critical periods of the 45-year-long Cold War between the former Soviet Union and the United States, successive leaders on both sides of the Iron Curtain were careful to exercise restraint.

It was, therefore, surprising - nay shocking - to hear President George Bush admit he had told world leaders “If you’re interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing Iran from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon”.

Was this a warning? Was this a threat, or was it merely overblown rhetoric intended to be a global wake-up call? Whatever the intent behind the statement, it brought the ugly specter of another world war back into the public conscious as a potential reality.

President Bush refrained from spelling out who the protagonists of any such world war might be but in light of the current cool climate between the US and Russia — and to a lesser extent between the US and China — over ways to eliminate Iran’s uranium enrichment program one can be forgiven for speculating.

There is no doubt, too, that Russia is increasingly flexing its newly developed muscle. Earlier this month, Caspian Sea states (including Iran) signed a declaration upon Russia’s urging to the effect they will never allow their soil to be used by a foreign country to launch a military attack against another Caspian nation. They also stressed that all signatories to the NPT have the right to generate and utilize nuclear energy for peaceful purposes — a snub to US thinking.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has told Washington in no uncertain terms that his country will not accept military strikes on Iran and reinforced that message with an unprecedented invitation to the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to visit him in Moscow.

Pundits noted that the body language between Putin and Ahmadinejad appeared jolly and relaxed in contrast to the Russian leader’s earlier more sober meetings with Germany’s Chancellor Merkel and France’s President Sarkozy.

And last week, Putin turned his ire on Bush comparing the stringent new US sanctions against Iran and the American president’s attitude toward Tehran with that of a madman “running about with a razor blade in his hand”. Putin believes the sanctions will achieve little other than to undermine any hope of constructive dialogue between Iran and the West.

Highlighting the reality of war talk in the air, the Director-General of the Kazakhstan Institute of Strategic Studies Dr. Bulat K. Sultanov was recently driven to announce that Kazakhstan would side with Russia in case of a US-Russia confrontation. Wouldn’t such a confrontation amount to World War III?

But the method of ensuring Iran does not acquire the ability to manufacture nuclear weapons is far from being the only bone of contention between Russia and the US.

Russia vehemently objects to what it views as Washington’s interference in the politics of former Soviet republics. Moreover, the two nuclear giants do not see eye-to-eye on an independent Kosovo and neither can they agree on Bush’s plan to deploy a missile interceptors in Poland and a radar-tracking facility in the Czech Republic, which Russia believes would pose a threat to it despite American assurances to the contrary.

Last week, the Russian leader compared the atmosphere surrounding the US missile defense proposal with a severity parallel to the Cuban missile crisis in the early 1960s when the Cold War heated up to the point of becoming a nuclear confrontation.

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