Browse > Home / A Perilous Planet / Hayward Fault Might Be More Dangerous Than Scientists Thought

Hayward Fault Might Be More Dangerous Than Scientists Thought

January 21, 2008

The Hayward fault has long been pegged by geologists as the most likely candidate to host the Bay Area’s next big earthquake. Now some scientists say the fault may be even more dangerous than they thought. By analyzing gradual changes in stress on the deepest parts of faults in the area, geologists found that several faults, including the southern portion of the Hayward fault, may be more primed to rupture than previously estimated.

“The slip on the faults in the shallow part of the crust is really a catch-up with what’s happening below,” said geologist David Schwartz of the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park.

The new research suggests that current earthquake forecasts for the area may underestimate the danger on three faults — the Hayward fault; its northern neighbor, the Rodgers Creek fault, which runs from San Pablo Bay north past Santa Rosa; and the northern portion of the Calaveras fault from Sunol to the Danville area.

The most recent USGS assessment of earthquake probabilities from 2002 gives a 62 percent chance of a magnitude 6.7 or greater quake somewhere in the Bay Area in the next 30 years. Together, the Hayward fault and the Rodgers Creek fault account for 27 percent of that probability, more than any other fault in the area, including the San Andreas, which has a 21 percent chance.

The estimates were made by combining results from five different models that are based on different ideas. For example, one model assumes that thenext 30 years will be similar to the last 30 years and have very few major earthquakes.

Read More 

If this is your first time visiting Bible Prophecy In The News, I'd like to invite you to subscribe to our RSS feed. Thanks for visiting!

Written by admin · Filed Under A Perilous Planet 

Comments

Got something to say?