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Russia Has Called The Bluff - Now The Question Becomes, What Will They Do Next?

17 August 2008 No Comment

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Forty years ago this week, the night sky above Prague began to rumble with the sound of transport aircraft. On distant frontiers, tanks lurched forward. The invasion of Czechoslovakia had begun.

Today, there are Russian tank columns driving along Georgian roads. Again, a small country lies prostrate before the military power of the Kremlin. Poland, in turn, is informed by a Russian general that by agreeing to station American missiles, it has made itself a nuclear target - perhaps no more than a brutal statement of the obvious.

But there are big differences between now and 1968. First, the Georgians fought back before being overwhelmed, something they will remember in the years to come. Second, this is something less than total occupation. Anything may still happen, but this Russian action looks more like a punitive expedition.

What do the Russians want? The world does not yet know. Possibly the Russians do not know either; their tradition is to enter a crisis with several contrary game plans and then to play it by ear. But some short-term purposes are already clear.

They want to destroy Georgia’s military hardware so thoroughly it will take a decade to rebuild. That is what the roving armoured units are doing. They want to upgrade their ‘peacekeeping’ forces in South Ossetia and Abkhazia so Georgia will never dare to attack across their borders again. They want to discredit President Mikheil Saakashvili so utterly that the Georgian people will depose him. They want to show the world the sort of price which would be paid for taking Georgia into Nato and also to suggest that Georgia is too erratic to be a Nato partner.

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