Could This Recession Be As Bad As The Great Depression?
May 4, 2008
The question of whether the U.S. economy is in a recession is, at this point, a matter of decimal points. Since the population grows faster than 1 percent, anyway, Wednesday’s announcement of a 0.6 percent rise in gross domestic product for the first quarter is functionally a drop.
The real question now is: How bad could it get? Are we facing another version of the brief recession of 1990-’91, which, as James Fallows once memorably wrote, “was over by the time it was identified”? Or are we going to be wearing barrels for clothes and burning Ikea furniture to heat our homes, in a rerun of the Great Depression?
No one knows. But we may be able to arrive at a rough answer if we break the question down. How, exactly, do Americans distinguish a bad recession from a mild one—and using those yardsticks, can we at least make reasonable predictions about this one?
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US Bank Losses Continue To Worsen
April 13, 2008
Citigroup and Merrill Lynch will heap further pain on Wall Street this week as they reveal additional sub-prime write-downs totalling $15 billion (£7.6 billion) or more.
In another sign of the intense pressure on leading banks, Deutsche Bank is attempting to offload some of its €35 billion (£28 billion) of toxic debt to a consortium of private-equity firms.
Huge exposure to American mortgages is expected to result in Citi taking a $10 billion hit to its accounts, dragging the bank to a first-quarter loss of almost $3 billion. Some analysts believe Citi’s write-downs could stretch to as much as $12 billion.
Merrill will suffer $5 billion of write-downs, analysts say, which would push the bank $2.7 billion into the red.
Brace For $1 Trillion Writedown
April 1, 2008
Be it ever so devalued, $1 trillion is a lot of dough.
That’s roughly on a par with the Russian economy. More than double the market value of Exxon Mobil Corp. About nine times the combined wealth of Warren Buffett and Bill Gates.
Yet $1 trillion is the amount of defaults and writedowns Americans will likely witness before they emerge at the far side of the bursting credit bubble, estimates Charles R. Morris in his shrewd primer, “The Trillion Dollar Meltdown.” That calculation assumes an orderly unwinding, which he doesn’t expect.
“The sad truth,” he writes, “is that subprime is just the first big boulder in an avalanche of asset writedowns that will rattle on through much of 2008.”
Expect the landslide to cascade through high-yield bonds, commercial mortgages, leveraged loans, credit cards and — the big unknown — credit-default swaps, Morris says. The notional value for those swaps, which are meant to insure bondholders against default, covered about $45 trillion in portfolios as of mid-2007, up from some $1 trillion in 2001, he writes.
Fed’s Rescue Halted Finacial Meltdown
March 26, 2008
When the Federal Reserve stepped in to save Bear Stearns, most people had no idea what was at stake, writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
We may never know for sure whether the Federal Reserve’s rescue of Bear Stearns averted a seizure of the $516 trillion derivatives system, the ultimate Chernobyl for global finance.
“If the Fed had not stepped in, we would have had pandemonium,” said James Melcher, president of the New York hedge fund Balestra Capital.
“There was the risk of a total meltdown at the beginning of last week. I don’t think most people have any idea how bad this chain could have been, and I am still not sure the Fed can maintain the solvency of the US banking system.”
All through early March the frontline players had watched in horror as Bear Stearns came under assault and then shrivelled into nothing as its $17bn reserve cushion vanished.
Melcher was already prepared - true to form for a man who made a fabulous return last year betting on the collapse of US mortgage securities. He is now turning his sights on Eastern Europe, the next shoe to drop.
Dollar’s Clout Sinks Worldwide
March 24, 2008
Antique store owners in lower Manhattan, ticket vendors at India’s Taj Mahal and Brazilian business executives heading to China all have one thing in common these days: They don’t want U.S. dollars.
Hit by a free fall with no end in sight, the once-mighty U.S. dollar is no longer just crashing on currency markets and making life more expensive for American tourists and business people abroad: Its clout is evaporating worldwide as foreign businesses and individuals turn to other currencies.
Experts say the bleak U.S. economic forecast means it will take years for the greenback to recover its value and prestige.
Negative dollar sentiment is growing in nations where the dollar was historically accepted as equal or better than local currency � and dollar aversion is even extending to some quarters in the United States.
At the Taj Mahal, dollars were always legal tender, alongside rupees, for entry into the palace. But because of the falling value of the dollar, the government implemented a rupees-only policy a month ago. Indian merchants catering to tourists have also turned bearish on the dollar.
“Gone are the days when we used to run after dollars, holding onto them for rainy days,” said Vijay Narain, a tour operator in the city of Agra where the Taj Mahal is located. “Now we prefer the euro. It gives us more riches.”
In Bolivia, billboards feature George Washington’s image on a $1 bill alongside a bright pink 500 euro note, encouraging savers to turn to the euro to tuck away money earned abroad or sent home in remittances.
“If the dollar falls … save in euros!!!” say the signs popping up around La Paz for Bolivia’s Banco Bisa.
And in neighboring Brazil, the Confidence Cambio money-changing service was the first to start offering yuan so travelers to China no longer have to change the money into dollars first. The service is already a hit because Brazil does big business with China, and lots of Brazilians are heading to the Olympics this summer.
Circle of Doom For The Dollar
March 17, 2008
Ben S. Bernanke’s interest-rate cuts have touched off a vicious circle of doom for the dollar.
The Federal Reserve reduced the rate on direct loans to commercial banks by a quarter-point to 3.25 percent before Asian financial markets opened today. It will likely lower its target rate for overnight loans between banks tomorrow to at least 2.25 percent from 3 percent, according to futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. Lower borrowing costs work against the dollar by making fixed-income securities issued by the government less appealing to global investors.
“The relative return on U.S. assets is not attractive enough and we have moved back into looking for dollar weakness,” said Robert Robis, a bond fund manager in New York at OppenheimerFunds Inc., which oversees $260 billion. Robis last month was betting the dollar would rally versus the euro.
If that weren’t enough to make bears out of bulls, the weakest dollar since at least 1971 based on a Fed trade-weighted index is helping push oil, grains and metals, which are priced in the U.S. currency, to record highs. That in turn is causing economists to lower growth forecasts for the U.S. and preventing central banks concerned that inflation is accelerating from cutting interest rates, further undermining the dollar.
Are We In The Middle of A Financial Meltdown
March 12, 2008
The scariest thing I’ve read recently is a speech given last week by Tim Geithner, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Mr. Geithner came as close as a Fed official can to saying that we’re in the midst of a financial meltdown.
To understand the gravity of the situation, you have to know what the Fed did last summer, and again last fall.
As late as August the favorite buzzword of financial officials was “contained”: problems in subprime mortgages, we were assured, wouldn’t spread to other financial markets or to the economy as a whole.
Soon afterward, however, a full-fledged financial panic began. Investors pulled hundreds of billions of dollars out of asset-backed commercial paper, a little-known but important market that has taken over a lot of the work banks used to do. This de facto bank run sent shock waves through the financial system.
The Fed responded by rushing money to banks, and markets partially calmed down, for a little while. But by December the panic was back.
Again, the Fed responded by rushing money to banks, this time via a new arrangement called the Term Auction Facility. Again the markets calmed down, for a while.
Recession Fears Rise As Economy Continues To Falter
March 9, 2008
The job market’s deterioration comes as oil prices climbed this week to a record $105.47 a barrel. Meanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a record number of American homes went into foreclosure the last three months of 2007, and the Federal Reserve said homeowner equity, battered by sliding home prices, fell to the lowest level since World War II. This all means a tighter squeeze on consumers, who are likely to pull back on spending, which drives about 70 percent of the US economy.
Stock prices, too, continued their slide. The Dow Jones industrial average shed 146.70 points yesterday, closing at 11,893.69, the lowest since October 2006.
“It’s a very toxic mixture,” said Nigel Gault, chief US economist at Global Insight, a Waltham forecasting firm. “Things are go ing to get worse in the immediate future.”
President Bush, reacting to the unexpected job losses, yesterday acknowledged economic activity has slowed. But he said the recently approved package to stimulate the economy, primarily through tax rebate checks to most Americans, will provide a “booster shot.” In addition, aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will provide a further lift.
Economists expect the Fed to cut rates again, perhaps by three-quarters of a point, when policy makers meet March 18. The Fed has already cut the benchmark rate by 2.25 points since September, to 3 percent, the lowest level in nearly three years. Many economists forecast that the rate, which influences just about every other borrowing rate, will fall to 2 percent or lower before the Fed is done cutting.
Lower interest rates aim to stimulate the economy by reducing borrowing costs, which encourage businesses and consumers to borrow and spend. But the impact of rate cuts has been blunted by the so-called credit crunch as banks, many sustaining huge losses from rising defaults in risky mortgages known as subprime, have become reluctant to lend.
“The rate cuts are setting the stage for better times later, but they can’t deal with the credit crunch going on,” said Allen Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics Inc., a Boston financial market advisory firm. “We are in a very dangerous situation that the downturn won’t be mild and short, but long and deep.”
Dollar: It Will Only Get Worse
March 3, 2008
Despite all the pain the U.S. dollar has endured in recent days, the greenback may still have further to fall before seeing any sort of relief, according to currency experts.
Driving much of the dollar’s decline this week were tepid remarks about the U.S. economy by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who hinted that the central bank would cut interest rates once again at the Fed’s March meeting.
Those comments, combined with a number of troubling signs about the strength of the U.S. economy, helped send the dollar tumbling to multi-year lows against a host of currencies including the Swiss franc, the Malaysian ringgit and Japanese yen.
U.S. Faces Disaster Over Oil Wealth Exodus
February 24, 2008
One of America’s most influential businessmen, legendary oilman T. Boone Pickens, says the nation’s wealth is being plundered by oil exporters and the U.S. faces a potential financial disaster if our energy policy is not reformed.
Pickens, who correctly predicted that oil would top $100 a barrel, also says he expects oil prices to drop sharply in the near term.
Appearing on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Thursday morning, Pickens pointed out that the U.S. is currently sending half a trillion dollars out of the country each year to buy oil, in some cases from people who “are our enemies.”
Said Pickens, “You take 10 years and you’ve got $5 trillion … That’s more than $1 billion a day.
“We can’t stand that. Wealth is moving out of the country…
“Not one presidential candidate has addressed this … The candidates have to get up to speed on what energy cost is doing to our country.” Pickens even turned on his own industry, oil, and called for an increase in alternative energy sources.
“If we do not get on the alternative energy bandwagon and if we don’t have a global recession, we could be sitting on $150 oil in two years,” he told CNBC.
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