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Can The US Protect Taiwan If China Attacks

China is preparing for an eventual cross-strait showdown with Taiwan and may be prepared to use tactics that could stop the United States from getting involved, according to an analysis of publicly available information on China’s military by the RAND Corporation.

According RAND, China’s defenses, the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA), has identified the U.S. military’s reliance on information systems as “a significant vulnerability that, if successfully exploited, could paralyze or degrade U.S. forces to such an extent that victory could be achieved” against Taiwan.

The writings RAND analyzed were not official war plans but the opinions, analysis, and recommendations of the Chinese military community.

The Chinese leadership believes that the key to victory over the U.S. is achieving tactical surprise, according to RAND.

The report quotes one Chinese military expert as saying that taking the U.S. by surprise would “cause confusion within and huge psychological pressure on the enemy and help [China] win relatively large victories at relatively small costs.”

In such an attack, the Chinese would blockade critical sea lanes in the Taiwan region and strike American logistics facilities, command-and-control centers, ports, airfields, and aircraft carrier battle groups in the area.

China could also launch cyber-attacks against American computer networks, physically destroy orbiting spy satellites, and launch an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) strike to deaden U.S. electronics systems in the region.

Based on the U.S. experience in Somalia, the Chinese experts cited by RAND think the United States has “a limited capacity to withstand personnel casualties.”

America’s perspective

The U.S. military apparently is well aware and not surprised by the RAND findings. At the core of China’s overall strategy, analysts say, rests the desire to maintain the continuous rule of the Chinese Communist Party.

“A deep-rooted fear of losing political power shapes the leadership’s strategic outlook and drives many of its choices,” the U.S. Defense Department reported to Congress in its 2007 assessment, “The Military Power of the People’s Republic of China.”

Source 

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Putin says U.S. Setting Off New Arms Race

President Vladimir Putin said Friday that “a new arms race has been unleashed in the world” as the United States moves forward with a missile defense system in Eastern Europe. Russia will field new weapons in response, he said, dismissing American assurances that the missile system is not directed against Russia as nothing more than “diplomatic cover.”

“It’s not our fault. We didn’t start it … funneling multi-billions of dollars into developing weapons systems,” Putin declared in what may be his final major address before he leaves the Kremlin after presidential elections March 2, to become prime minister.

“Russia has and always will have a response to these new challenges,” Putin declared. “Over the next few years, Russia will start production of new types of arms, with the same or even superior specifications compared to those available to other nations.”

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Is Ahmadinejad Setting A Trap For Israel And The US?

Like the Jedi Knights in Star Wars, much of Israel’s safety depends on an absurdly small number of daring pilots and their jet planes. The Israel Air Force has managed to use that capacity with amazing skill and daring, as it showed last September when a dozen fighter bombers and support aircraft jammed Syria’s Russian-supplied air defenses and destroyed a secret nuclear facility on the Euphrates river — not far from Iran.  The nature of that target has still not been revealed, but it must have been important enough to risk triggering a missile attack from Syria.

That means the target was believed to be very important: most likely a joint Iranian-Syrian-North Korean nuclear facility.

In a very odd move, the Syrians are now rebuilding that mysterious concrete cube in exactly the same location — even though the whole world knows about it now.  Why should they spend vast amounts of money doing that, if it would only become another fat target?

One possibility is that it’s a trap for IAF jets. Surround the concrete cube with enough new Russian anti-aircraft missiles, back it up with radars based on Russian ships that just happen to be doing the biggest naval exercise in years right now in the Mediterranean,   and provoke another attack by announcing another nuclear breakthrough. It could be a baited ambush.

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Nato Must Be Prepared To Launch Nuclear Attack

Nato must prepare to launch pre-emptive nuclear attacks to ward off the use of weapons of mass destruction by its enemies, a group of former senior military officials has warned.

Calling for a major change to Nato’s approach to defending its members and their interests, the authors of the report, which has been handed to Nato and Pentagon chiefs, said the first-strike use of nuclear weapons was a “indespensible instrument”.

According to a report, the authors of the blueprint for reforming Nato include Lord Peter Inge, the former British chief of the defence staff and US General John Shalikashvili, the former Nato commander in Europe and chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff.

“The risk of further proliferation is imminent and, with it, the danger that nuclear war fighting, albeit limited in scope, might become possible,” the report said.

“The first use of nuclear weapons must remain in the quiver of escalation as the ultimate instrument to prevent the use of weapons of mass destruction.”

The document reportedly includes Lord Inge’s comments on the controversy surrounding nuclear weapons policy: “To tie our hands on first use or no first use removes a huge plank of deterrence.”

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US Agency Chief: Iran Speeding Up Development Of Missiles

Iran has sped up efforts to develop long-range missiles, demonstrating the need for a proposed missile defense system in Europe, the head of the US missile defense program said Wednesday.

”They are developing missiles today in an accelerated pace,” Lt. Gen. Henry Obering said about Iran in remarks at the Czech Foreign Ministry. He said Iran was the third most active country in flight testing missiles last year, behind Russia and China.

”They’re developing ranges of missiles that go far beyond anything they would need in a regional fight, for example, with Israel,” Obering said.

”Why are they developing missiles today that … will be possible to reach Europe in few years?” he asked.

Defense shield in Europe

The US is in talks with the Czech government about plans to place a missile tracking radar system at a base in a military area near Prague as part of the system.

Washington also wants to place 10 interceptor missiles in Poland as part of a defense shield that US officials say is needed to protect the US and its European allies against a possible threat from Iran.

The Czech government has been receptive to the proposal, which Russia has strongly opposed.

Iran recently announced it manufactured a new missile, the Ashoura, with a range of 1,200 miles that was capable of reaching Israel and US bases across the Middle East.

”They also made statements that once you reached that range, getting beyond that is fairly easy,” Obering said. He stressed that the proposed missile defense installations could counter such a threat.

US agency chief: Iran speeding up development of missiles - Israel News, Ynetnews

Bush Urges Action To Confront Iran

US President George Bush said that Iran is threatening the security of the world, and that the US and Arab allies must join together to confront the danger “before it’s too late”.

Mr Bush said Iran funds terrorist extremists, undermines stability in Lebanon, sends arms to the hard-line Taliban regime, intimidates its neighbours with alarming rhetoric and defies the United Nations by refusing to be open about its nuclear programme.

“Iran is the world’s leading state sponsor of terror,” Mr Bush said in a speech about democracy that he delivered about midway through his eight-day Mideast trip, which began with a renewed push for an Israeli-Palestinian peace pact - an accord he said whose “time has come”.

Chiding US allies who have withheld civil liberties, Mr Bush said governments will never build trust by harassing or imprisoning candidates and protesters. But his rebuke was general, and he did not single out any US partner in the region for oppressive practices.

“You cannot expect people to believe in the promise of a better future when they are jailed for peacefully petitioning their government,” Mr Bush said. “And you cannot stand up a modern, confident nation when you do not allow people to voice their legitimate criticisms.”

Mr Bush’s speech, reprising the call for democracy in the Middle East that he made in his second inaugural address, was delivered in one of the few countries in the region - the United Arab Emirates - where democracy has not been a vital issue. In other countries in the region, especially Egypt, the fight between democracy activists and autocratic governments has been much more pointed and controversial.

The president lauded some democratic reforms among Arab nations. He urged the Arab leaders to show support for the fragile Iraqi government, open their societies and provide backing, and possible funding, to help make an Israeli-Palestinian agreement stick.

“Leaders on both sides still have many tough decisions ahead, and they will need to back these decisions with real commitments,” Mr Bush said, “but the time has come for a holy land where Palestinians and Israelis live together in peace.”

He called on the Palestinians to reject extremists, although he did not specifically mention the Islamic radical group Hamas, which has gained control of the Gaza Strip.

“The dignity and sovereignty that is your right is within your reach,” Mr Bush said in a direct appeal to the Palestinians.

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Taiwan Elections News - Nationalist Party Wins Vote by Landslide

Taiwan elections took an interesting turn as the opposition Nationalist Party won a landslide victory in legislative elections Saturday, dealing a humiliating blow to the governments hardline China policies two months before a presidential poll.

President Chen Shui-bian, who has been criticized for aggravating relations with China by promoting policies to formalize Taiwans de facto independence, resigned as chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party immediately after the extent of the defeat became clear.

“I should shoulder all responsibilities,” Chen said. “I feel really apologetic and shamed.”

Critics say Chens policies have allowed Taiwans once vibrant economy to lose competitiveness and ratcheted up tension in the perennially edgy Taiwan Strait. Washington has made it clear it finds Chens China policies dangerous and provocative — particularly a planned referendum on Taiwanese membership in the United Nations, which appears designed to underscore the islands political separateness from the mainland.

A March 22 presidential election to chose a successor to Chen, who must step down after eight years in office, pits Frank Hsieh of Chens Democratic Progressive Party against the Nationalists Ma Ying-jeou. Recent opinion polls give Ma a 20-point lead.

The DPP wants to formalize the independence Taiwan has had since an inconclusive civil war nearly 60 years ago, but has held off out of fears that China would make good on threats to attack. In contrast, the Nationalists favor more active engagement with China and do not rule out eventual unification.

With most votes counted, TV station San Li projected the Nationalists would win 82 seats in the 113-seat Legislature, against only 27 for the DPP, with four going to independents. In Taiwans bitterly partisan media environment, San Li is a strong DPP supporter.

Speaking at Nationalist headquarters in Taipei, Ma said the party had won 81 seats — enough to give it a 3/4 majority together with four pro-Nationalist independents — but cautioned against overconfidence.

“We need to be cautious about the presidential poll, and hopefully we can win,” he said. “With a Nationalist presidency and Nationalist-controlled legislature, we can push forward the reform expected by the Taiwanese people.”

If the Nationalists do go on to recapture the presidency, they will be in a strong position to end years of deadlock between Taiwans legislative and executive branches, and stabilize the islands rocky relations with China. In Taiwans bitterly partisan media environment, San Li is a strong DPP supporter and offered the most conservative assessment of the Nationalist sweep.

Shelley Rigger, a Taiwan specialist at North Carolinas Davidson College, said in order for Hsieh to win the presidency, he must distance himself from Chen, who has grown increasingly unpopular after a series of corruption scandals and a sputtering economy.

“He needs to convince people that he is different from the rest of the party,” Rigger said.

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Pentagon Says Ships Harassed by Iran

An Iranian fleet of high-speed boats charged at and threatened to blow up a three-ship U.S. Navy convoy passing near Iranian waters, then vanished as the American ship commanders were preparing to open fire, the top U.S. Navy commander in the area said Monday. No shots were fired an an Iranian official in Tehran said the incident amounted to “something normal.”

Bush administration officials complained that the Iranian actions amounted to a dangerous provocation, but one private analyst said the Iranians may have believed they were acting defensively in a narrow waterway that is heavily trafficked by commercial ships, including oil vessels.

The incident raised new tensions between Washington and Tehran as President Bush prepared to depart Tuesday on his first major trip to the Middle East.

The three U.S. warships — cruiser USS Port Royal, destroyer USS Hopper and frigate USS Ingraham — were headed into the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz on what the U.S. Navy called a routine passage inside international waters when they were approached by five small high-speed vessels believed to be from Irans Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy.

The Iranians “maneuvered aggressively” in the direction of the U.S. ships, said Vice Adm. Kevin Cosgriff, the commander of U.S. 5th Fleet, which patrols the Gulf and is based at nearby Bahrain. The U.S. ship commanders took a series of steps toward firing on the boats, which approached to within 500 yards, but the Iranians suddenly fled back toward their shore, Cosgriff said.

Cosgriff was not precise about the U.S. ships location but indicated they were about three miles outside Irans territorial waters, which extend 12 miles from its shores, headed in a westerly direction after having passed the narrowest point in the strait.

At one point the U.S. ships received a threatening radio call from the Iranians, “to the effect that they were closing on our ships and that the ships would explode — the U.S. ships would explode,” Cosgriff said.

“Subsequently, two of these boats were observed dropping objects in the water, generally in the path of the final ship in the formation, the USS Ingraham,” he added. “These objects were white, box-like objects that floated. And, obviously, the ship passed by them safely.”

The boxes were not retrieved, so U.S. officials do not know whether they posed an actual threat. Cosgriff the U.S. ship commanders were moving through a standard series of actions — including radio calls to the Iranians that went unheeded — but did not reach the point of firing warning shots.

“We take this deadly seriously,” Cosgriff told a Pentagon news conference via video link from Bahrain.

He recalled the October 2000 terrorist attack on a U.S. warship, the USS Cole, in Yemens Aden harbor by a small boat laden with explosives; 17 sailors died in that attack, which nearly sank the Cole.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates, speaking aboard the USS New Orleans pierside in San Diego, told reporters on Monday “it would be nice to see the Iranian government disavow this action and say that it wont happen again.”

Source -AP

U.S. Says North Korea Missed Deadline For Nuclear Inventory List

North Korea said on Friday it had already accounted for its nuclear arms programme as required under an international disarmament deal an assertion quickly rejected by the United States, which urged Pyongyang to produce a declaration soon.

The United States and several allies said this week that North Korea had not met a December 31 deadline to provide a full inventory of its nuclear arms programmes, as it was obliged to by the deal it struck with regional powers earlier in the year.

Breaking days of silence on the missed deadline, the North’s KCNA news agency quoted an unnamed Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying: “We have already drawn up a nuclear report in November and have notified the United States of it.”

In Washington, the White House and State Department said the United States and other countries in the six-party nuclear negotiations were in fact still waiting for the declaration.

“Unfortunately, we have not yet received a complete and correct declaration and we urge North Korea to deliver one soon so that we can all get the benefits offered in the six-party process,” White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe told reporters.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said none of the other five countries in the six-party talks — China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States — had seen the final declaration that the North was obliged to deliver.

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Ex-CIA Official: Israel Will Attack Iran On It’s Own

I came back from a trip to Israel in November convinced that Israel would attack Iran,” Bruce Riedel, a former CIA official and senior adviser to three US presidents, George W. Bush among them, told the American Newsweek magazine in an article published Friday.

Citing conversations he had in Israel with officials in Mossad and the Israeli defense establishment, Riedel concluded that “Israel is not going to allow its nuclear monopoly to be threatened.”

While some US experts doubt Israel’s ability to tackle Iran alone, David Albright, of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, was quoted by Newsweek as saying that although information on the exact location of Iran’s nuclear facility is incomplete, Israel’s air strike on an alleged Syrian nuclear facility on September 6, widely discussed in foreign media outlets, could be seen as a test run for any future strike on Iran’s facilities, as well as a direct warning to Teheran.

Riedel told the magazine his impression that Israel would venture a strike on Iran on its own was formed before the publication of the joint US intelligence agencies’ report, the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE). “This [the NIE] makes it [a strike on Iran] even more likely,” he said.

Since the publication of the NIE, which reversed a previous American assessment by concluding that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, leaders worldwide have been adjusting their publicly stated positions on the Iranian nuclear issue.

Even inside the US, President Bush attempted some damage control by stating a day after the report’s publication that “Iran was dangerous, Iran is dangerous and Iran will be dangerous.”

In Israel, responses to the report ranged from subtle criticism of the report’s conclusions to outright slamming of the US intelligence community’s capabilities, so much so that on last Sunday’s cabinet meeting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert instructed his ministers to refrain from commenting any further on the report.

In the international scene, Russia’s decision to renew fuel shipments to Iran main nuclear facility at Bushehr was interpreted by many anlysts as stemming directly from the NIE’s publication; another development possibly stemming from the report is Russia and China’s hardened position on further sanctions against Teheran.

In Teheran, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was quick to capitalize on the NIE, calling it an “Iranian victory” and demanding that the United States publicly apologize for its previous bellicose stance.

Uzi Arad, a former Mossad official and adviser to opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu, told Newsweek that on a recent trip to Moscow, a Russian general poked fun at the naiveté of the NIE, commenting that if the Iranians had halted weapons development in 2003 it was partly because they were satisfied with progress there and wanted to devote investment to harder parts of the nuclear equation, like enrichment.

“The irony is that the effect of this report may be self-negating - by itself it will accelerate Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons,” Arad told the magazine.

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