1,000 Banks to Fail In Next Two Years

The US banking system will lose some 1,000 institutions over the next two years, said John Kanas, whose private equity firm bought BankUnited of Florida in May. “We’ve already lost 81 this year,” Kanas told CNBC. “The numbers are climbing every day. Many of these institutions nobody’s ever heard of. They’re smaller companies.” (See the accompanying video for the complete interview.)

Failed banks tend to be smaller and private, which exacerbates the problem for small business borrowers, said Kanas, who became CEO of BankUnited when his firm bought the bank and is the former chairman and CEO of North Fork bank.

“Government money has propped up the very large institutions as a result of the stimulus package,” he said. “There’s really very little lifeline available for the small institutions that are suffering.”

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Russia, India Question Dollar Reliance Before Summit

Russia and India said the world economy is too reliant on the U.S. dollar and called for changes in how $6.5 trillion in currency reserves are managed, as Group of Eight leaders prepare to meet this week.

“The dollar system or the system based on the dollar and euro have shown that they are flawed,” Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said in an interview with Corriere della Sera, repeating his proposal for a new international reserve currency.

Suresh Tendulkar, an economic adviser to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, said in a July 3 interview that he is urging his nation to diversify its foreign holdings away from the dollar.

The challenge to the dollar, a linchpin of world finance and trade since 1945, underlines the shift in relative economic power toward emerging markets and away from the developed nations that spawned the global crisis.

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China Calls To Replace Dollar With World Currency

China’s central bank has reiterated its call for a new reserve currency to replace the US dollar.

The report from the People’s Bank of China PBOC said a “super-sovereign” currency should take its place.

Central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan has loudly led calls for the dollar to be replaced during the financial crisis.

The bank report called for more regulation of the countries that issue currencies that underpin the global financial system.

“An international monetary system dominated by a single sovereign currency has intensified the concentration of risk and the spread of the crisis,” the Chinese central bank said.

The dollar fell after the report was released. The US currency dropped 1% against the euro to $1.4088, and declined 0.8% versus the British pound to $1.6848.

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Russia – World Needs New Reserve Currency

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Tuesday the world needs new reserve currencies.

Medvedev told a regional summit that the creation of new reserve currencies in addition to the dollar is needed to stabilize global finances.

Medvedev has made the proposal before. It reflects both the Kremlin’s push for greater international clout and a concern shared by other countries that soaring U.S. budget deficits could spur inflation and weaken the dollar.

Airing it at a summit meeting underlined the challenge to U.S. clout.

Medvedev spoke at a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which includes China and four Central Asian nations.

Later Tuesday he hosts a summit of the BRIC group of leading emerging economies — Brazil, Russia, India and China.

The Kremlin’s top economic adviser said Russia may put part of its currency reserves in bonds issued by Brazil, China and India.

Arkady Dvorkovich said Russia could make the move if the other three nations reciprocate. Brazil, Russia, India and China are the members of the BRIC group of leading emerging economies.

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U.S. Inflation to Approach Zimbabwe Level

The U.S. economy will enter “hyperinflation” approaching the levels in Zimbabwe because the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise interest rates, investor Marc Faber said.

Prices may increase at rates “close to” Zimbabwe’s gains, Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong. Zimbabwe’s inflation rate reached 231 million percent in July, the last annual rate published by the statistics office.

“I am 100 percent sure that the U.S. will go into hyperinflation,” Faber said. “The problem with government debt growing so much is that when the time will come and the Fed should increase interest rates, they will be very reluctant to do so and so inflation will start to accelerate.”

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said on May 21 inflation may rise to 2.5 percent in 2011. That exceeds the central bank officials’ long-run preferred range of 1.7 percent to 2 percent and contrasts with the concerns of some officials and economists that the economic slump may provoke a broad decline in prices.

“There are some concerns of a risk from inflation from all the liquidity injected into the banking system but it’s not an immediate threat right now given all the excess capacity in the U.S. economy,” said David Cohen, head of Asian economic forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore. “I have a little more confidence that the Fed has an exit strategy for draining all the liquidity at the appropriate time.”

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Brazil and China Eye Plan To Axe The Dollar

Brazil and China will work towards using their own currencies in trade transactions rather than the US dollar, according to Brazil’s central bank and aides to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president.

The move follows recent Chinese challenges to the status of the dollar as the world’s leading international currency.

Beijing this week, and Hu Jintao, China’s president, first discussed the idea of replacing the dollar with the renminbi and the real as trade currencies when they met at the G20 summit in London last month.

An official at Brazil’s central bank stressed that talks were at an early stage. He also said that what was under discussion was not a currency swap of the kind China recently agreed with Argentina and which the US had agreed with several countries, including Brazil.

“Currency swaps are not necessarily trade related,” the official said. “The funds can be drawn down for any use. What we are talking about now is Brazil paying for Chinese goods with reals and China paying for Brazilian goods with renminbi.”

Henrique Meirelles and Zhou Xiaochuan, governors of the two countries’ central banks, were expected to meet soon to discuss the matter, the official said.

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World Economy In Severe Recession, IMF Says

The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday slashed growth forecasts for every major country and urged governments to take forceful action to ensure the world economy’s recovery from a severe recession.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF said the global economy would likely contract 1.3 percent this year in the deepest post-World War Two recession by far.

Growth is set to re-emerge at a sluggish 1.9 percent next year but the pick-up depends on aggressive measures to repair a poorly functioning financial system.

“The longer this goes on, the longer and the deeper will be the recession,” IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard told a news conference.

Just three months ago, the IMF had projected global growth of 0.5 percent, although last month it warned of a deep recession.

The Washington-based institution said it revised its forecasts downward because financial markets appear likely to take longer to stabilize than it had thought earlier.

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Russia To Call For New World Currency At G20 Talks

Russia yesterday published its list of demands for upcoming discussions at the next G20 talks, and top of the list was a new “superreserve currency”. Angered by the dominance of the US dollar as the global reserve currency, the Kremlin said in a statement issued on its website that the IMF should look into the creation of an alternative “accepted by the whole of the international community”.

But according to ‘The Moscow Times’, the idea would receive little support outside of Russia. “This is all in the realm of fantasy,” said Sergei Perminov, chief strategist at Rye, Man and Gore. “There was a situation that resembled what they are talking about. It was called the gold standard, and it ended very badly.”

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Experts Warn Of Massive Dollar Collapse

Peter Schiff warns of imminent collapse of  the US dollar and dire days ahead for US.   Watch The Video

Bank of England policymaker Willem Buiter says Americans should prepare now.

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Americans must prepare themselves for a massive collapse in the dollar as investors around the world dump their US assets, a former Bank of England policymaker has warned.

The long-held assumption that US assets – particularly government bonds – are a safe haven will soon be overturned as investors lose their patience with the world’s biggest economy, according to Willem Buiter.

Professor Buiter, a former Monetary Policy Committee member who is now at the London School of Economics, said this increasing disenchantment would result in an exodus of foreign cash from the US.

The warning comes despite the dollar having strengthened significantly against other major currencies, including sterling and the euro, after hitting historic lows last year. It will reignite fears about the currency’s prospects, as well as sparking fears about the sustainability of President-Elect Barack Obama’s mooted plans for a Keynesian-style increase in public spending to pull the US out of recession.

Writing on his blog , Prof Buiter said: “There will, before long (my best guess is between two and five years from now) be a global dumping of US dollar assets, including US government assets. Old habits die hard. The US dollar and US Treasury bills and bonds are still viewed as a safe haven by many. But learning takes place.”

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Dollar Spirals Downward

The world’s biggest currency-trading firms say the dollar’s appeal as a haven amid the financial crisis all but evaporated.

The U.S. currency slid to a 13-year low against the yen today and had its biggest one-day decline versus the euro after the Federal Reserve reduced its target interest rate yesterday to a range of zero to 0.25 percent, the lowest among the world’s biggest economies. CMC Markets said today the currency’s prospects appear “ominous.” State Street Global markets said the dollar’s outlook has been “undermined.”

“The dollar has been under heavy downward pressure,” said Robert Minikin, a senior currency strategist in London at Standard Chartered Bank Plc. “This move is very well-justified and has a long way to run.” Standard Chartered is preparing to cut its dollar forecasts, Minikin said.

Yesterday’s rate cut brings the Fed’s target to below the Bank of Japan’s for the first time since January 1993. U.S. policy makers repeated plans to buy agency debt and mortgage- backed securities and said they will study buying Treasuries, a policy known as quantitative easing.

The dollar fell to 87.14 yen, the lowest since July 1995, before trading at 87.45 yen as of 3:51 p.m. in New York, from 89.05 yesterday. It depreciated to $1.4437 per euro from $1.4002 and traded at $1.4366, the weakest since Sept. 30.

‘Ominous’ Outlook

The dollar is likely to decline “longer term,” analysts including New York-based Ashraf Laidi at CMC Markets wrote in a report. “Prospects ahead appear particularly ominous for the world’s reserve currency once global economic stability starts to build up.”

via Bloomberg.com: News.

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Supermarkets Emergency Plans To Keep Shelves Full – UK

Fears that scores of supermarket suppliers will go bust next year have led the country’s major chains to draw up emergency plans to replace them, The Observer can reveal.

Separately, on the high street, bailiffs are getting ready for their busiest Christmas ever, with a slew of retailers expected to go into administration.

Supermarket chain Asda, led by Andy Bond, is working on ‘worst-case scenarios’ across the board – combing its supplier base and examining alternatives to them. ‘Suppliers are under a lot of pressure and there will be casualties,’ said a senior executive at another store chain, which has already stepped in to pay troubled suppliers ahead of schedule. ‘We need each other, it is not a zero-sum game.’

The need for alternative supply lines has been brought into focus by the collapse of Woolworths and its distribution arm, EUK, which supplied the supermarkets as well as Zavvi, the former Virgin Megastores, with CDs. However, cracks have been showing in other areas, with milk processor Dairy Farmers of Britain in the midst of a restructuring that will see two dairies close and up to 640 jobs lost.

The damage a collapsed supplier can do is laid bare at Zavvi, which has been destabilised during the most important sales weeks of the year. It has been forced to suspend its website with former parent Virgin stumping up a £5m ‘fighting fund’ to keep shelves filled in the key trading days left between now and Christmas. But with no obvious successor to step into the void left by EUK, Zavvi faces a grim outlook in 2009.

Tesco said it was supporting suppliers that needed extra help by giving an indication of future orders. ‘The worst thing for a supermarket is for a supplier to go under, because you are left with a big hole and investing in a new one is a big deal,’ said a Tesco spokesman.

Analysts say the supply of ready meals is vulnerable. Major players include the heavily indebted Premier Foods and Icelandic group Bakkavor. The latter has £140m trapped in collapsed Icelandic bank Kaupthing, although it says its UK operation, which supplies all the major grocers, is not affected.

Relationships between supermarkets and suppliers are often tense at the best of times. Suppliers hoping for additional protection from the powerful supermarkets – who have been accused of making unreasonable demands in price negotiations – look set to be disappointed as the Competition Commission’s plan to create an ombudsman looks doomed. Asda will not sign up to the scheme, so the matter looks set for referral to the government’s business department in the new year.

The collapse of Woolworths has come to symbolise the dire state of the high street, where retailers are facing the worst trading conditions in a generation. And with a spate of administrations expected early in the new year, bailiffs are gearing up for a festive feeding frenzy around ‘quarter day’ – when even struggling retailers must find three months’ rent – which falls on Christmas Day.

‘We have had more instructions than ever before and I’ve been in this career for 21 years,’ said Jon Dawkins, chief executive of bailiffs’ firm Dawkins, whose clients include the Crown Estate, Transport for London, asset managers Prudential and Threadneedle, as well as all the major property agents.

Landlords want to get their cash while retailers still have money in the tills after the Christmas rush – and before administrators are called in and cash is ringfenced for secured creditors.

via The Observer.

Congressman Ron Paul: Current Monetary System Coming To An End

The Texas Republican says the bailout’s infusion of government money will lead to inflation, that our current monetary system is coming to end, and the market, not politicians, can best solve the economic crisis.

Kiran Chetry: The last time you were with us you explained why you were against the government’s bailout plan, why you were voting against it, and you didn’t believe focusing on buying these troubled assets was the smart thing to do. Since then, they’ve tweaked it and decided to buy stakes in some U.S. banks. Do you think that’s a better strategy to help heal the economy?

U.S. Rep. Ron Paul: They tweaked it up. It started out as a three-page document and went up to 450 pages. Instead of $700 billion it’s up to $850 billion. Reuters had a story out today. They estimate it’s going to cost the American taxpayer about $5 trillion. It’s tweaking in the wrong direction, and I don’t think it’s going to do any good whatsoever.

Chetry: The credit markets are starting to loosen up a bit, at least from what we’ve seen this week. Is that a sign that maybe it is working?

Paul: Maybe to some degree in the short run, but that just means we’ll have more inflation. You can’t create $5 trillion out of thin air and not expect inflation. So although the dollar may be up a little bit right now because the markets are a little calmer, this just means that in time we’re going to all suffer and pay for this, and we’re going to pay for it with higher prices. Video Watch Ron Paul warn of bitter economic times ahead »

This is the serious problem. It’s the attack on the dollar system. They’re trying to save the dollar, but this system that we’ve had since 1971 is nonviable, and it’s coming to an end. That’s what this whole story is about, the end of a monetary system that we’ve had since 1971.

Something has to give. You just can’t create more money out of thin air and propping up everybody. It’s an immoral system. You’re asking the poor people to bail out the rich. You’re asking the innocent people to bail out the guilty. You’re asking people to just totally defy the Constitution because there’s no place in the Constitution that says that we can do these things.

Besides, economically, it’s a disaster. This is going to cause a great deal of harm. It’s like a drug addict taking a strong fix, and he feels better for a day or two, but believe me, we’re going to kill the patient. And the patient here is the dollar system and our entire world economy. I would say let’s get off this addiction.

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