Be Prepared, The Worst Is Yet To Come

The large-scale government intervention in the economy is going to end badly. Any number of pundits claim that we have now passed the worst of the recession. Green shoots of recovery are supposedly popping up all around the country, and the economy is expected to resume growing soon at an annual rate of 3% to 4%. Many of these are the same people who insisted that the economy would continue growing last year, even while it was clear that we were already in the beginning stages of a recession.

A false recovery is under way. I am reminded of the outlook in 1930, when the experts were certain that the worst of the Depression was over and that recovery was just around the corner. The economy and stock market seemed to be recovering, and there was optimism that the recession, like many of those before it, would be over in a year or less. Instead, the interventionist policies of Hoover and Roosevelt caused the Depression to worsen, and the Dow Jones industrial average did not recover to 1929 levels until 1954. I fear that our stimulus and bailout programs have already done too much to prevent the economy from recovering in a natural manner and will result in yet another asset bubble.

via Be Prepared for the Worst – Forbes.com.

US May Face Armageddon If China, Japan Don’t Buy Debt

The US is too dependent on Japan and China buying up the country’s debt and could face severe economic problems if that stops, Tiger Management founder and chairman Julian Robertson told CNBC.

“It’s almost Armageddon if the Japanese and Chinese don’t buy our debt,” Robertson said in an interview. “I don’t know where we could get the money. I think we’ve let ourselves get in a terrible situation and I think we ought to try and get out of it.”

Robertson said inflation is a big risk if foreign countries were to stop buying bonds.

“If the Chinese and Japanese stop buying our bonds, we could easily see [inflation] go to 15 to 20 percent,” he said. “It’s not a question of the economy. It’s a question of who will lend us the money if they don’t. Imagine us getting ourselves in a situation where we’re totally dependent on those two countries. It’s crazy.”

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Economic Crisis Makes Europe Richest Region In the World – Report

Europe has emerged as the richest region in the world, pushing North America, where wealth has declined by more than 20 percent due to the economic crisis, off the top spot, a study has shown.

The world’s richest also feel the recession biting, especially in North America, where the financial crisis first unfolded a year ago, reveals a survey on global wealth carried out by the Boston Consulting Group, a global management consulting firm.

North America’s wealth, measured in assets under management, plummeted by 21.8 percent, the steepest decline in the world. A lesser fall was registered in Europe, where assets shrunk by 5.8 percent compared to last year, down to €22.2 trillion – a quarter of the globe’s total wealth.

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FDIC Could Use A Financial Lifeline of It’s Own

The government agency that guarantees you won’t lose your money in a bank failure may need a lifeline of its own. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. coffers have been so depleted by the epidemic of collapsing financial institutions that analysts warn it could go red by the end of this year.

That has happened only once before — during the savings-and-loan crisis of the early 1990s, when the FDIC was forced to borrow $15 billion from the Treasury and repay it later with interest.

The agency reveals today how much is left in its reserves. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair may also use the quarterly briefing to say how the agency plans to shore up its accounts.

Small and midsize banks across the country have been hurt by rising loan defaults in the recession. When they fail, the FDIC is responsible for making sure depositors don’t lose a cent.

It has two options to replenish its insurance fund in the short run: It can charge banks higher fees or it can take the more radical step of borrowing from the U.S. Treasury.

None of this means bank customers have anything to worry about. The FDIC is fully backed by the government, which means depositors’ accounts are guaranteed up to $250,000 per account. And it still has billions in loss reserves apart from the insurance fund.

Bair today will also update the number of banks on the FDIC’s list of troubled institutions. That number shot up to 305 in the first quarter — the highest since 1994 and up from 252 late last year.

Because of the surging bank failures, the FDIC’s board voted Wednesday to make it easier for private investors to buy failed financial institutions.

Private equity funds have been criticized for taking too many risks and paying managers too much. But these days fewer healthy banks are willing to buy ailing banks, and the depth of the banking crisis appears to have softened the FDIC’s resistance to private buyers.

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FDIC – Bank Profits Drop By 86 Percent – 117 Banks In Trouble

The government says U.S. banking profits fell 86 percent in the second quarter, while the number of troubled banks rose to the highest level in about five years.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. says the roughly 8,500 banks and thrifts also set aside a record 50 billion dollars to cover losses from soured mortgages and other loans in the second quarter.

FDIC says 117 banks and thrifts were considered to be in trouble in the second quarter, up from 90 in the prior quarter.

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