Is The US Russia?

Is the US Russia? The question seems provocative, if not outrageous. Yet the person asking it is Simon Johnson, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and a professor at the Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In an article in the May issue of the Atlantic Monthly, Prof Johnson compares the hold of the “financial oligarchy” over US policy with that of business elites in emerging countries. Do such comparisons make sense? The answer is Yes, but only up to a point.

“In its depth and suddenness,” argues Prof Johnson, “the US economic and financial crisis is shockingly reminiscent of moments we have recently seen in emerging markets.” The similarity is evident: large inflows of foreign capital; torrid credit growth; excessive leverage; bubbles in asset prices, particularly property; and, finally, asset-price collapses and financial catastrophe.

“But,” adds Prof Johnson, “there’s a deeper and more disturbing similarity: elite business interests – financiers, in the case of the US – played a central role in creating the crisis, making ever-larger gambles, with the implicit backing of the government, until the inevitable collapse.” Moreover, “the great wealth that the financial sector created and concentrated gave bankers enormous political weight.”

Now, argues Prof Johnson, the weight of the financial sector is preventing resolution of the crisis. Banks “do not want to recognise the full extent of their losses, because that would likely expose them as insolvent … This behaviour is corrosive: unhealthy banks either do not lend (hoarding money to shore up reserves) or they make desperate gambles on high-risk loans and investments that could pay off big, but probably won’t pay off at all. In either case, the economy suffers further, and, as it does, bank assets themselves continue to deteriorate – creating a highly destructive cycle.”

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UN Panel Welcomes Debate Over New Global Reserve Currency

Editors Note - For those keeping score… This makes it 3. Russia, China and now the UN have each announced  advocating a move to a global currency at the  upcoming  G20 conference.

The head of a United Nations expert panel discussing solutions to the financial crisis on Thursday welcomed the debate over a new global reserve currency and said it would be best managed by a brand new institution.

Just days ahead of the Group of 20 heads of state meeting in London, several key players have weighed in with solutions to resolve the current financial crisis and to prevent future recurrences. One of the most sensitive subjects is the creation of a new de facto global reserve currency to replace the U.S. dollar.

The debate has shot to the forefront as officials from Russia and China have spoken up, lending weight to the discussions. While the G20 meeting isn’t expected to address it directly, it’s a topic that will continue to be discussed over the longer term.

The U.N. panel’s report published last week said a new global reserve system would “contribute to economic stability and equity,” and would reduce the deflationary effects of the massive reserve accumulations that countries have found necessary to protect them against the high level of global instability.

The International Monetary Fund is often cited as the most obvious choice to run a global reserve system, as it already uses its own currency, known as special drawing rights, or SDRs, in its dealings with member countries.

Joseph Stiglitz, economist and head of the U.N. panel, said Thursday in a teleconference with journalists that, although the IMF might be the fastest route, there’s a stigma associated with it among some developing countries, and there’s also frustration with the way that SDRs are allocated.

“My own longer-term preference is to create a new institution to do this,” Stiglitz said. “That’s a trade-off. I would rather face up to these deeper questions and get the system right.”

via Article – WSJ.com.

China Proposes One Global Currency

China’s central bank on Monday proposed replacing the US dollar as the international reserve currency with a new global system controlled by the International Monetary Fund.

In an essay posted on the People’s Bank of China’s website, Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank’s governor, said the goal would be to create a reserve currency “that is disconnected from individual nations and is able to remain stable in the long run, thus removing the inherent deficiencies caused by using credit-based national currencies”.

Analysts said the proposal was an indication of Beijing’s fears that actions being taken to save the domestic US economy would have a negative impact on China.

“This is a clear sign that China, as the largest holder of US dollar financial assets, is concerned about the potential inflationary risk of the US Federal Reserve printing money,” said Qu Hongbin, chief China economist for HSBC.

Although Mr Zhou did not mention the US dollar, the essay gave a pointed critique of the current dollar-dominated monetary system.

“The outbreak of the [current] crisis and its spillover to the entire world reflected the inherent vulnerabilities and systemic risks in the existing international monetary system,” Mr Zhou wrote.

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World Bank Offers Dire Forecast For World Economy

In a bleaker assessment than those of most private forecasters, the World Bank predicted Sunday that the global economy would shrink in 2009 for the first time since World War II.

The bank did not provide a specific estimate, but bank officials said its economists would be publishing one in the next several weeks.

Until now, even extremely pessimistic forecasters have predicted that the global economy would eke out a tiny expansion but had warned that even a growth rate of 5 percent in China would be a disastrous slowdown, given the enormous pressure there to create jobs for the country’s rural population.

The World Bank also warned that global trade would contract for the first time since 1982, and that the decline would be the biggest since the 1930s.

In a report prepared for a meeting next week of finance ministers from the 20 industrialized and large developing countries, the World Bank said the economic crisis that started with junk mortgages in the United States was causing havoc for poorer countries around the world, not only stifling their growth but also choking off their access to credit as well.

The bank said the financial disruptions were all but certain to overwhelm the ability of institutions like it and the International Monetary Fund to provide a buffer.

The bank, which provides low-cost lending for economic development projects in poorer countries, pleaded for wealthy governments to create a “vulnerability fund” and to set aside a fraction of what they spend on stimulating their own economies for assisting other countries.

“This global crisis needs a global solution and preventing an economic catastrophe in developing countries is important for global efforts to overcome this crisis,” said Robert Zoellick, the World Bank president. “We need investments in safety nets, infrastructure, and small and medium-size companies to create jobs and to avoid social and political unrest.”
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