Russia Warns United States Against Attacking Iran

The chief of Russia’s General Staff, Nikolai Makarov, has warned the US against striking Iran over the country’s nuclear program.”The consequences, I believe, would be dreadful for Iran, as well as Russia, the entire Asia-Pacific community,” Makarov said on Wednesday.

The Russian military chief further suggested that the United States might turn its military attention on the Islamic Republic once its operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have been completed.Amid a US campaign to drum up support for new anti-Iran sanctions, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned on Tuesday that world powers would “regret” any moves against the country.

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Russia Adopts Nuclear First Strike Military Doctrine

President Dmitry Medvedev has signed country’s new military doctrine which allows preventive nuclear strikes against potential aggressors.

”The President informed the members of Russia’s Security Council yesterday that he has approved two documents – the military doctrine and the Fundamentals of the state policy on nuclear deterrence until 2020,” presidential press secretary Natalia Timakova said.

”Military conflicts will be transient and selective, with a high degree of damage caused to targets, maneuverable troops and fire, and with the use of various mobile groups of troops (forces),” the doctrine which was published on the Kremlin website, said.

”The seizure of strategic initiative, dominance on the ground, at sea, and in aerospace will be the decisive factors in attaining goals,” it said.

”Military actions will be characterised by growing significance of high-precision, electromagnetic, laser, and infrasonic weapons, information control systems, unmanned aerial and autonomous sea vehicles, and guided robotised types of weapons and military hardware,” it said.

”Nuclear weapons will remain an important factor in preventing nuclear military conflicts and major conflicts with the use of conventional means of destruction (a large-scale or a regional war),” it noted.

”In case of emergence of a military conflict with the use of conventional means of destruction endangering the very existence of a state, the possession of nuclear weapons may cause such a military conflict to grow into a nuclear military conflict,” the document said.

According to Russian officials, the adjustment of the Russia’s military doctrine was prompted by real threats and challenges faced by the country.

via Russia for nuke strikes against potential aggressors.

Putin: We’ll Overwhelm U.S. Missile Shield

It’s been an excellent year in eeevil for Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Late last year, Russia revised its constitution to extend the presidential term to six years, paving the way for his return to the presidency in 2012. In the spring, he took another shirtless vacation with his crew. And in a recent marathon four-hour phone-in with handpicked citizens, Putin gave his strongest hint yet that he plans to be in charge until, oh, about 2024.

Now Putin seems to be floating a few ideas about restoring the “balance of power” in the world. On a visit today to Vladivostok, Russia’s maximum leader premier said Moscow “must continue developing offensive systems” that could fool or overwhelm U.S. missile defenses. Such upgrades, he said, would help “preserve a strategic balance” with the United States.

Putin’s comments come as the United States and Russia try to hammer out a new arms-control accord. According to Putin, the main obstacle to a new agreement is the U.S. focus on building anti-missile defenses. “What is the problem?” he told reporters. “The problem is that our American partners are building an anti-missile shield and we are not building one.”

By pursuing missile defense, Putin added, “our [U.S.] partners could feel themselves fully secure and will do whatever they want, which upsets the balance.”

via Putin: We’ll Overwhelm U.S. Missile Shield. (But Thanks for the Concessions, Barack!) | Danger Room | Wired.com.

Russia Simulates Nuclear Attack on Poland

The armed forces are said to have carried out “war games” in which nuclear missiles were fired and troops practised an amphibious landing on the country’s coast.

Documents obtained by Wprost, one of Poland’s leading news magazines, said the exercise was carried out in conjunction with soldiers from Belarus.

The manoeuvrings are thought to have been held in September and involved about 13,000 Russian and Belarusian troops.

Poland, which has strained relations with both countries, was cast as the “potential aggressor”.

The documents state the exercises, code-named “West”, were officially classified as “defensive” but many of the operations appeared to have an offensive nature.

The Russian air force practised using weapons from its nuclear arsenal, while in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, which neighbours Poland, Red Army forces stormed a “Polish” beach and attacked a gas pipeline.

The operation also involved the simulated suppression of an uprising by a national minority in Belarus – the country has a significant Polish population which has a strained relationship with authoritarian government of Belarus.

Karol Karski, an MP from Poland’s Law and Justice, is to table parliamentary questions on Russia’s war games and has protested to the European Commission.

via Russia ’simulates’ nuclear attack on Poland – Telegraph.

Inside the Apocalyptic Soviet Nuclear Doomsday Machine

Valery Yarynich glances nervously over his shoulder. Clad in a brown leather jacket, the 72-year-old former Soviet colonel is hunkered in the back of the dimly lit Iron Gate restaurant in Washington, DC. It’s March 2009—the Berlin Wall came down two decades ago—but the lean and fit Yarynich is as jumpy as an informant dodging the KGB. He begins to whisper, quietly but firmly.

“The Perimeter system is very, very nice,” he says. “We remove unique responsibility from high politicians and the military.” He looks around again.

Yarynich is talking about Russia’s doomsday machine. That’s right, an actual doomsday device—a real, functioning version of the ultimate weapon, always presumed to exist only as a fantasy of apocalypse-obsessed science fiction writers and paranoid über-hawks. The thing that historian Lewis Mumford called “the central symbol of this scientifically organized nightmare of mass extermination.” Turns out Yarynich, a 30-year veteran of the Soviet Strategic Rocket Forces and Soviet General Staff, helped build one.

Chart source: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Natural Resources Defense Council

The point of the system, he explains, was to guarantee an automatic Soviet response to an American nuclear strike. Even if the US crippled the USSR with a surprise attack, the Soviets could still hit back. It wouldn’t matter if the US blew up the Kremlin, took out the defense ministry, severed the communications network, and killed everyone with stars on their shoulders. Ground-based sensors would detect that a devastating blow had been struck and a counterattack would be launched.

via Inside the Apocalyptic Soviet Doomsday Machine.

Dismay in Europe as Obama Ditches Missile Defense

President Obama dismayed America’s allies in Europe and angered his political opponents at home today when he formally ditched plans to set up a missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.

The project had been close to the heart of Mr Obama’s predecessor, President Bush, who had argued before leaving office in January that it was needed to defend against long-range ballistic missile attacks from rogue states such as Iran and North Korea.

But it had hobbled relations with Russia, which considered it both a security threat and an unnecessary political provocation in its own backyard.

At a White House appearance today, Mr Obama confirmed that the defense shield envisaged by the Bush Administration, involving a radar base in the Czech Republic and interceptor rockets sited in Poland, was being abandoned.

Instead, after a comprehensive review, he had decided to accept the advice of both the Defence Secretary, Robert Gates, and of the Chiefs of Staff opt for a “smarter, stronger and swifter” system involving both sea-based and land-based mobile interceptors.

Mr Obama said that latest intelligence suggested that threat of long-range missile attacks from Iran had receded, but the threat of short- or medium-range attacks was a real one.

via Source.

Mystery Surrounds Hijacking of Russian Ship

Russia has retrieved its Arctic Sea shipping vessel that was hijacked and charged the offenders. The story doesn’t end there, though, as reports continue to surface alleging the “hijacking” were Israeli operatives sent to intercept missiles headed to Iran.. Other reports indicate the Russians staged their own hijacking after being notified of the ship’s contents by Israel. Regardless of who the hijackers were, they have thwarted a shipment of weapons that would have raised the stakes in the region for Israel and possibly even provoked military conflict.

On July 24, the Arctic Sea was hijacked by eight individuals while it was in the Baltic Sea, headed for Algeria carrying less than $2 million worth of timber. It was retrieved by the Russians on August 17 near Cape Verde. The authorities have released minimal information about the hijackers, except to say they are in custody and being charged with kidnapping and piracy. The crew members won’t talk, saying they were told by officials that doing so would compromise “state secrets.”

The attention surrounding the ship’s hijacking heightened after the Novaya Gazeta, a Russian newspaper that has had more than a handful of its journalists killed after investigating the misdeeds of officials, reported that the ship was transporting X-55 cruise missiles and the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system. The ship’s stop for “repairs” at Kaliningrad, the residence of a major Russian naval base that would house such missiles, may have provided a cover for such weaponry to be placed in a secret holding spot. The Iranians and Syrians have long talked about acquiring such arms, which present a severe threat to Israel.

The X-55 cruise missiles have a range of about 1,550 miles, putting Israel in Iran’s crosshairs, and are capable of carrying payloads with weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear warheads. It is not believed that Iran currently has the long-range bombers necessary to launch such a weapon at this time.

The S-300 is an advanced air defense system that would severly hamper the ability of the Israeli Air Force to launch air strikes on Iranian nuclear targets. It can track up to 100 targets, and engage a dozen of them, downing aircraft up to 27,000 meters in the sky. It would result in the Israelis losing 20 to 30 percent of the aircraft involved in a potential strike on Iran, assuming that the Israelis don’t have a secret way of disabling the system. One Israeli Air Force source said that the system would result in increasing Israeli casualties in such a strike by 50 percent. For this reason, experts like Pentagon advisor Dan Goure have described the S-300 as a “game changer” in the Middle East.

The report claimed that the hijackers were really working for the Israeli Mossad, sent to intercept the ship’s contents, and pointed to President Peres’ trip to Moscow the day after the Russians retrieved the ship, which was described as a surprise visit. Prime Minister Netanyahu is also reported to have made a secret visit to Moscow to discuss Russian arms sales to Iran and Syria, explaining his sudden absence.

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Putin Hints At A Possible Return To Presidency

Russian PM Vladimir Putin has given the clearest indication yet that he might run again for the Russian presidency. Mr Putin did not commit himself, but hinted that he is thinking of coming back in 2012 when President Dmitry Medvedev’s current term expires. The two leaders would not compete, but Mr Putin said: “We’ll reach an agreement.”

He was speaking in Moscow to the so-called Valdai Club of foreign academics and journalists.

The club holds a series of briefings with senior Russian politicians every year.

Mr Putin tried to downplay any suggestion of rivalry, insisting that whatever happened would be as the result of a deal which they came to jointly.

“Did we compete against each other in 2007 [before the last presidential election]?… No, we didn’t. And so we won’t in 2012 either. We’ll reach an agreement,” he said.

Russian President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin

President Medvedev (l) took over from Mr Putin in 2007

“We’re people of the same blood, with the same political views…. When it comes to 2012, we’ll work it out together, taking into account the current reality, our own plans, the shape of the political landscape, and the state of United Russia, the ruling party.”

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Russian Subs Patrolling Off East Coast of U.S.

A pair of nuclear-powered Russian attack submarines has been patrolling off the eastern seaboard of the United States in recent days, a rare mission that has raised concerns inside the Pentagon and intelligence agencies about a more assertive stance by the Russian military.

The episode has echoes of the cold war era, when the United States and the Soviet Union regularly parked submarines off each other’s coasts to steal military secrets, track the movements of their underwater fleets and be poised for war.

But the collapse of the Soviet Union all but eliminated the ability of the Russian Navy to operate far from home ports, making the current submarine patrols thousands of miles from Russia more surprising for military officials and defense policy experts.

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Medvedev Threatens U.S. Over Missile Shield

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned the United States on Friday that if it did not reach agreement with Russia on plans for missile defence systems, Moscow would deploy rockets in an enclave near Poland.

In sharp contrast to his positive words during President Barack Obama’s visit to Moscow earlier this week when the two reached broad agreement on nuclear arms cuts, Medvedev used a news conference at the G8 summit to return to Russia’s earlier tough rhetoric on arms control.

Referring to an order he gave earlier this year to prepare deployment of short-range Russian missiles in the western enclave of Kaliningrad to answer to any U.S. deployment of a missile shield in central Europe, Medvedev said:

“If we don’t manage to agree on the issues, you know the consequences. What I said during my state of the nation address has not been revoked.”

Medvedev, speaking at the G8, also appeared to change his tone on the missile defence shield itself.

During Obama’s visit he told the U.S. leader, using markedly softer language than normal, that “no one is saying that missile defence is harmful in itself or that it poses a threat to someone”.

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Russia, India Question Dollar Reliance Before Summit

Russia and India said the world economy is too reliant on the U.S. dollar and called for changes in how $6.5 trillion in currency reserves are managed, as Group of Eight leaders prepare to meet this week.

“The dollar system or the system based on the dollar and euro have shown that they are flawed,” Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said in an interview with Corriere della Sera, repeating his proposal for a new international reserve currency.

Suresh Tendulkar, an economic adviser to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, said in a July 3 interview that he is urging his nation to diversify its foreign holdings away from the dollar.

The challenge to the dollar, a linchpin of world finance and trade since 1945, underlines the shift in relative economic power toward emerging markets and away from the developed nations that spawned the global crisis.

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Countries Form Bloc To Challenge US Dominance

With public hugs and backslaps among its leaders, a new political bloc was formed yesterday to challenge the global dominance of the United States.

The first summit of heads of state of the BRIC countries — Brazil, Russia, India and China — ended with a declaration calling for a “multipolar world order”, diplomatic code for a rejection of America’s position as the sole global superpower.

President Medvedev of Russia went further in a statement with his fellow leaders after the summit, saying that the BRIC countries wanted to “create the conditions for a fairer world order”. He described the meeting with President Lula da Silva of Brazil, the Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, and the Chinese President, Hu Jintao, as “an historic event”.

The BRIC bloc brings together four of the world’s largest emerging economies, representing 40 per cent of the world’s population and 15 per cent of global GDP. The leaders set out plans to co-operate on policies for tackling the global economic crisis at the next G20 summit in the US in September.

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Russia – World Needs New Reserve Currency

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Tuesday the world needs new reserve currencies.

Medvedev told a regional summit that the creation of new reserve currencies in addition to the dollar is needed to stabilize global finances.

Medvedev has made the proposal before. It reflects both the Kremlin’s push for greater international clout and a concern shared by other countries that soaring U.S. budget deficits could spur inflation and weaken the dollar.

Airing it at a summit meeting underlined the challenge to U.S. clout.

Medvedev spoke at a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which includes China and four Central Asian nations.

Later Tuesday he hosts a summit of the BRIC group of leading emerging economies — Brazil, Russia, India and China.

The Kremlin’s top economic adviser said Russia may put part of its currency reserves in bonds issued by Brazil, China and India.

Arkady Dvorkovich said Russia could make the move if the other three nations reciprocate. Brazil, Russia, India and China are the members of the BRIC group of leading emerging economies.

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Federal Reserve Puzzled By Yield Curve Steepening

The Federal Reserve is studying significant moves in the U.S. government bond market last week that could have big implications for the central bank’s strategy to combat the country’s recession.

But the Fed is not really sure what is driving the sharp rise in long-dated bond yields, and especially a widening gap between short and long term yields.

Do rising U.S. Treasury yields and a steepening yield curve suggest an economic recovery is more certain, meaning less need for safe haven government bonds and a healthy demand for credit? If so, there might be less need for the Fed to expand the money supply by buying more U.S. Treasuries.

Or does the steepening yield curve mean investors are worried about the deterioration in the U.S. fiscal outlook, or the potential for a collapse in the U.S. dollar as the Fed floods the world with newly minted currency as part of its quantitative easing program. This might be an argument to augment to step up asset purchases.

Another possibility is that China, the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury debt, has decided to refocus its portfolio by leaning more heavily on shorter-term maturities.

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