Russian Naval Task Force Led By Aircraft Carrier Docks At Syrian Port

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The force, which includes the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, the Admiral Levchenko destroyer and the Nikolay Chiker salvage tug, was due to call in at the Syrian port of Tartus Monday, Jan. 12 after carrying out joint exercises with the Turkish navy last week.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the arrival of the Russian flotilla in wartime is unusual and especially significant given Syria’s role as one of the staunchest backers of Hamas which is embroiled in a war against Israel further down the coast in Gaza.

Our sources believe Moscow may be signaling its disapproval of Israel’s military operation in the Gaza Strip.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that 50 Russian seamen are permanently based at the Syrian maintenance and resupply facility, the only Russian base in the Mediterranean.

Russia is expanding Tartus port, which has six piers and building a pier at a second Syrian port – Latakia.

During the Russian-Georgian War last August, the Russian government decided to turn the Syrian port into a back-up facility for its Black Sea fleet and its base at the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol.

via DEBKAfile - A Russian naval task force led by aircraft carrier docks at Syrian port.

Israel Concerned Over U.S. Policy Changes

Israel believes the US will change its policy towards the Middle East, when Barack Obama becomes the next president.

Top Israeli officials have held a series of meetings to prepare for the Obama administration. In the public eye, Israeli politicians have been quick to hail Barack Obama’s election as the 44th President of the United States. However, privately indications are they may be worried about some of his policies.

Israeli newspapers suggest that nothing much will change in the first six months after Obama takes office in January. But following that they expect the US to make overtures to Syria and Iran, sworn enemies of Israel. Obama is not expected to change the US policy regarding Hamas, which is currently regarded as a terror organisation.

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Russia Positions Itself In Middle East

Until Russia can revitalize its naval forces to a much larger degree, its deployments to the Mediterranean contribute more to symbolic and diplomatic activity than being a viable military counterweight to NATO in the region. Yet the Black Sea Fleet in the Med is a significant show of force and a diplomatic irritant and a potential threat to shipping in the Suez Canal and to America’s ally Israel.

The increased Russian naval presence in the region means that the Kremlin is seeking to cultivate Syria as a close regional ally, and is looking to secure additional bases for the Black Sea Fleet besides its current base in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol.

In addition, Russia would also be able to deploy electronic intelligence-gathering ships that could then improve its monitoring capabilities against NATO forces and Syria’s ability to monitor NATO and Israeli transmissions, expanding the previous naval intelligence engagement during the Balkan wars.

Finally, Russian naval forces could deter or disrupt Israeli naval or air assets deployed in wartime against Syria or Hezbollah in Lebanon.

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Syria Says There May Be Possibility of Peace With Israel

Syrian President Bashar Assad said Tuesday that indirect negotiations with Israel have brought “the possibility of peace,” though the two countries still have quite a way to go toward that goal.

Syria’s foreign minister said last week that the talks had not made enough headway for the two sides to hold direct negotiations. In an interview with France-3 television, Assad said officials were working to make them happen.

“Today there is a possibility of peace,” Assad said. “But nonetheless, we cannot say that we are close to achieving peace. We are preparing for direct negotiations. When we reach that step, we will be able to say that we are approaching peace.

“Today, we can only say that we have opened the door to peace,” he said, in remarks in Arabic that were dubbed over in French.

Turkey has mediated a series of indirect negotiations between Syria and Israel in a bid to get the sides to meet face-to-face and end their decades-old enmity. Assad said that direct talks in the future could happen with U.S., French and Turkish backing.

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Russia Plans To Raise Navy Presence In Syria

The Russian navy will make more use of Syrian ports as part of increased military presence in the Mediterranean, a Russian diplomat said on Wednesday.

The announcement comes as tensions rise between Moscow and the West over Russia’s role in Georgia. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad backed Russia’s recent offensive on Georgia in support of a separatist province during a visit to Russia last week.

“Our Navy presence in the Mediterranean will increase. Russian vessels will be visiting Syria and other friendly ports more frequently,” Igor Belyaev, the Russian charge d’affaires, told reporters in the Syrian capital.

“The visits are continuing,” he added.

Russia relies on Syria’s Tartous port as a main stopping point in the Mediterranean, although ties between the two countries have cooled since the collapse of Communism, when Moscow supplied Syria with billions of dollars worth of arms.

Internet news sites have reported that a Russian naval unit, including the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, docked at Tartous earlier this month.

Belyaev would not be drawn on specifics, or whether new military agreements with Syria were reached during Assad’s meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at a Black Sea resort on Thursday.

“The two leaders gave their directions to advance ties in the economy, trade and energy fields, as well as military cooperation,” he said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said last week Russia was prepared to sell Syria more arms as long as they do not disturb the “regional balance of power.”

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Syria’s Bid For Missiles Stirs Alarm In Israel

Fears that Russia might sell advanced weaponry to Syria have raised concern in Israel.

Syrian President Bashar Assad, in Russia for talks with President Dmitry Medvedev, has been openly campaigning to acquire weapon systems that include long-range surface-to-surface missiles.

Russian media reports of Mr Assad’s ambitions prompted hand-wringing by Israeli officials on Thursday. Defence Minister Ehud Barak said Israel was analysing the ramifications of Mr Assad’s two-day visit.

The Haaretz newspaper, citing Russian media, said Mr Assad offered to host Iskander missiles, surface-to-surface missiles with a reported maximum range of 270 kilometres, as a response to a deal signed by Washington and Poland this week to deploy elements of a US missile defence system in Poland.

Silvan Shalom, a member of the Knesset, or parliament, said Israel should demand that Moscow refrain from “arming its enemies” because it could destabilise the Middle East.

The deal, however, is far from done. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow would consider Syrian requests for arms but added: “We are indeed prepared to sell only defensive weapons which do not violate the regional balance of power.”

Russia Considers Nuclear Missiles For Syria, Baltic

Russia is planning to install Iskander surface missiles in Syria and its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad, in a response to United States missile interceptors in Poland and U.S.-Israeli military aid to Georgia, an Israeli news agency reported on Monday.

Moscow seems to be eying Poland, the Middle East, and possibly Ukraine, as the main arenas for its reprisals, as Russia is reported to plan arming warships, submarines and long-range bombers in the Baltic and Middle East with nuclear warheads, DEBKAfile reported.

The plan includes the establishment of big Russian military, naval and air bases in Syria and the release of advanced weapons systems withheld until now to Iran, with the S-300 air-missile defense system, and the nuclear-capable Iskander to Syria.

Shortly before the Georgian conflict flared, Moscow promised Washington not to let Iran and Syria have these sophisticated pieces of hardware.

The Iskander’s cruise attributes make its launch and trajectory extremely hard to detect and intercept. If this missile reaches Syria, Israel will have to revamp its anti-missile defense array and Air Force assault plans for the third time in two years, as it constitutes a threat which transcends all its defensive red lines.

Moscow’s military planners know this and are therefore considering new sea and air bases in Syria as sites for the Iskander missiles, DEBKAfile reported. Russia would thus keep the missiles under its hand and make sure they were not transferred to Iran, it added.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will be invited to Moscow soon to finalize these plans in detail, according to the report.

Military spokesmen in Moscow also said at the weekend that Russian military planners started redesigning the nation’s strategic plans as a fitting response to the U.S. decision to install 10 missile interceptors in Poland and over the recent clashes in Georgia, DEBKAfile reported.

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